U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has issued a stark warning at the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore, stating that China’s military activities around Taiwan may indicate an imminent invasion. He asserted that the threat posed by China is real, and the military drills are a rehearsal for a potential invasion. In response, Beijing has denied the allegations, with Rear Admiral Hu Gangfeng labeling the claims as groundless. Analysts, however, point to a growing body of evidence suggesting China may be preparing for a military move.
The first indicator is the intensification of joint military exercises around Taiwan, including simulations of blockades and amphibious assaults. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has also positioned advanced bombers, such as the H-6, on strategic outposts, extending China’s strike capability. Gray-zone operations, such as cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, are also being used to destabilize the region. U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that by 2027, the PLA will be fully capable of launching an invasion of Taiwan. These preparations extend beyond Taiwan, with China expanding its influence in Latin America through investments and trade agreements. The strategic use of civilian ferries and amphibious vehicles suggests a focus on amphibious operations. Additionally, the intensification of China’s political narrative around ‘reunification’ and the expansion of coastal infrastructure in Fujian Province further indicate a potential military move. Chinese fighter jets and warships have repeatedly entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, signaling heightened military activity.
The international community must take this threat seriously. Strengthening deterrence, improving intelligence sharing, and reinforcing Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities are critical to avoiding a regional catastrophe. For the United States and its allies, readiness is no longer optional—it is a strategic imperative. Hegseth’s warning reflects a sober assessment of the escalating realities, with these indicators aligning with historical precedents for pre-invasion posturing.