Democrats in Florida face an uphill battle in the 2026 gubernatorial election as former Republican congressman David Jolly joins the race with a focus on the affordability crisis. This is a challenging time for Democrats, as they have not won a gubernatorial race in the state since 1994. Jolly, who left the Republican Party seven years ago and joined MSNBC as a political analyst, argues that the state’s affordability crisis is due to Republican neglect and that a coalition of Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans can win next year.
Jolly’s campaign is seen as a significant move in the Democratic Party’s efforts to reclaim the state, as he points to the recent town halls he’s been holding ahead of his campaign launch as evidence of growing support. However, Florida Republicans predict Jolly will become the latest in a line of defeated Democrat gubernatorial candidates. The race for the Republican gubernatorial primary also appears to be shaping up, with Rep. Byron Donalds, a Trump ally, appearing to be on an early glide path to the nomination.