A recently released poll commissioned by the American Opportunity Alliance has raised concerns about Sen. John Cornyn’s chances in the Texas Senate race. The survey, conducted from April 29 to May 1, shows Cornyn trailing state attorney general Ken Paxton by 17 points in a head-to-head matchup. The poll highlights a growing divide within the Republican primary electorate, with Paxton gaining strong support from ‘Trump Movement’ voters, who make up 58 percent of the electorate, while Cornyn retains an advantage among ‘Traditional Republicans,’ who constitute 35 percent of the voters.
The findings reflect a broader trend of an insurgent hard-right faction gaining significant traction in Texas, leading to the ousting of more traditional GOP officials. Paxton, despite facing federal investigation and impeachment, has long been a favored figure among right-wingers in the state. In contrast, Cornyn, first elected to the Senate in 2002, is seen as a key establishment figure within the Republican Party. The poll also includes a speculative three-way race with GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is considering a bid, with Cornyn trailing Paxton by 16 points and Hunt receiving 14 percent.
Despite trailing Paxton, Cornyn still maintains a favorable rating among Republican primary voters in Texas, though not as high as Paxton’s. The poll, along with other public and private surveys, has prompted national Republican operatives to express growing concerns about a potentially contentious and costly primary. The American Opportunity Alliance’s involvement in the race is notable, as it is a major donor consortium in Republican politics, with key members including megadonor Paul Singer and Chuck Schwab, who are among the largest funders on the right.