A recent American National Election Study reveals a significant realignment among immigrant voters, with the GOP now leading by 15 points on immigration issues, a marked shift from the 2020 election where Democrats had a 58%-24% advantage. The data from the 2024 election indicates a 49-point swing by voters born outside the U.S. toward the GOP, indicating a growing support for Republican immigration policies.
The study, known as the American National Election Studies (ANES), is one of the oldest and most respected election studies in the world, dating back to 1952. It has been used as the gold standard for understanding voter behavior and political trends. The data shows that in the 2020 election, voters born outside the U.S. favored Democrats on immigration issues by a margin of 58% to 24%. Four years later, the same group of voters now shows a preference for the GOP with 45% supporting the party’s immigration policies, compared to 30% for the Democrats.
This shift is attributed to the focus of Republican policies on border security, which has resonated with both immigrant and non-immigrant voters. Daron Shaw, a member of the Fox News Decision Team and a politics professor at the University of Texas, noted that the movement toward the GOP on immigration issues is partly due to the alignment of border security and immigration as key Republican issues. He also pointed out that immigrant voters, who were previously highly pro-Democratic, have more room to shift toward the Republicans given their initial strong support for the Democrats.
Immigration and border security have been central to President Trump’s political strategy, especially as he sought to win back the White House in the 2024 election. Trump’s approach to these issues, including the deployment of National Guard troops to quell protests in Los Angeles over immigration raids, has garnered significant attention. His administration’s actions have dominated national headlines, with the focus on border security and immigration remaining in the political spotlight.
The realignment of immigrant voters represents a significant shift in the political landscape, with Republicans making gains among traditionally Democratic voter groups. This trend is further supported by the fact that many immigrants are now aligning with Republican positions on immigration and border security. The change is seen as a result of the emphasis on these issues by the GOP and the resonance of such policies with a broader segment of the population.