President Donald Trump’s recent Middle East diplomatic engagements have sparked a renewed interest in the potential strategy behind his actions. The focus appears to be on the revival of the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), an ambitious infrastructure project devised to bypass China’s Belt and Road Initiative, thereby re-establishing the United States as a central player in a new economic corridor stretching from South Asia through the Middle East to Europe.
Despite keeping his promise of avoiding new wars, Trump’s Middle East policies have been marked by a series of unpredictable moves that have left Washington and its allies confused. These include the re-opening of backchannels with Iran, followed by threats of regime collapse; keeping Israel at arm’s length during his regional tour, only to signal support again; lifting U.S. sanctions on Syria’s Islamist leader, previously considered untouchable in Washington; and hosting Pakistan’s top general at the White House, despite India’s public objection.
While critics view these actions as a reflection of improvisation and even contradictions, analysts believe there is a underlying pattern— one not driven by traditional alliances or ideological motives, but rather by economic access and strategic trade routes. This strategy is seen as aiming to re-engage in the IMEC initiative, an ambitious project conceived in 2023 at the G20 summit in New Delhi, where the U.S., India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and European Union joined forces to develop a modern infrastructure linking South Asia with Europe, without relying on Chinese capital.
IMEC’s vision is to facilitate trade between Indian goods and European markets via rail and ports through the Gulf, across Israel, and on to European markets. The plan envisioned the corridor as not only a trade route but also as a network for energy pipelines, digital cables, and logistics hubs, providing an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The project, however, faced immediate obstacles with the outbreak of the Gaza conflict in October 2023, which disrupted regional stability, caused the collapse of normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and halted Gulf capital flows, effectively shelving the corridor’s development.
Trump’s current actions may be seen as part of a broader strategy to remove the roadblocks that halted IMEC. His approach to Iran exemplifies this, with a strategy that combines diplomatic engagement and public pressure, mirroring the approach he used with North Korea. Meanwhile, his temporary distancing from Israel may signal a shift towards supporting Gulf-led reconstruction plans and highlighting the importance of regional stability over unilateral military actions. The lifting of sanctions on Syria’s leader and outreach to Pakistan also align with the goal of unlocking regional access and financing.
While it’s clear that Trump does not have a confirmed master plan, there is a growing logic underneath his diplomatic actions: to de-escalate enough conflict to make capital flow again and make corridors investable. This strategy reflects a real shift in U.S. foreign policy towards an ‘infrastructure-first’ model where trade routes and ports matter more than treaties and summits. Despite its unpredictability, Trump’s focus on economic leverage highlights this shift, aiming to create the conditions necessary for the revival of IMEC, positioning the U.S. as a key player in this strategic economic corridor.