As the Iranian regime faces a potential breaking point from sustained Israeli strikes on military and nuclear infrastructure, analysts are examining what could follow if the regime collapses. Discussions about what the future might look like in a post-Islamic Republic Iran have been sparked by the current situation. The end of the Islamic Republic is no longer seen as unthinkable, but the potential outcomes could lead to either a freer future or further instability. Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi, a prominent opposition leader, has indicated that sources inside Iran are claiming the regime’s command and control structures are collapsing rapidly. He suggests the international community is beginning to realize the Islamic Republic has no sustainable future.
Behnam Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, has explained that the term ‘revolution’ is too broad in this context. Instead, he prefers the terms ‘evolution’ and ‘devolution,’ which indicate that the result of any change could be either positive or negative. Taleblu warns that due to the nature of the Middle East, the outcomes of introducing a new shock to the system could be far worse than initially anticipated. He adds that both the Iranian opposition and Western governments have not adequately prepared for regime change due to a reluctance to engage with the idea of changing the regime. This lack of preparation could lead to an unprepared response to any potential transition.
Beni Sabti, an expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, has outlined four potential scenarios that may emerge. One of these, he warns, is significantly more dire than the others. Sabti notes that the Iranian people are currently leaderless, low-energy, and disillusioned due to the women’s protests. He suggests that a collapse from within, similar to the previous fall of the Soviet Union, could be one possibility. In this case, an insurgent commander within the Revolutionary Guards, supported by loyalists, could decide to rebel against the current regime. Sabti also points out that Israel has eliminated many key Revolutionary Guard leaders, potentially positioning the regular army to rise in the power vacuum. This internal movement could, in some ways, quietly lead to a historical transformation within the country.
Taleblu supports the idea of a transition from within but recognizes that the Iranian regime has been heavily ‘coup-proofed’ over the past decades. This means the likelihood of a classic military coup is less, though not entirely impossible. He emphasizes that it would require significant politicking and maneuvering for such a change to occur. Another scenario involves a popular uprising, possibly initiated by the release of political prisoners. Many political figures are currently imprisoned in Iran, and their freedom could trigger mass support for a change in the system, although the relationship with Israel might remain strained. A third possibility is the return of exiled leaders, with some suggesting that the people may rally around a symbolic figure in a later phase if internal conflicts break out. Taleblu believes that while figures like Reza Pahlavi could be influential, the people within Iran would be the ones shaping the new country.
The fourth and most alarming possibility is the survival of the regime. Taleblu warns that if the Islamic Republic continues, it would likely become even more radical, with a greater emphasis on military power and less influence from the clergy. This development could bring a more extreme form of governance, resembling either Turkey or Pakistan, or even a more messianic regime. Aref Al-Kaabi, representing the State of Ahwaz, highlights the importance of trust and cooperation among non-Persian communities, including the Ahwazi, Baloch, Azeris, and Kurds. He argues that without unity among these groups, regime change will remain an elusive goal. Al-Kaabi is critical of the Persian opposition’s refusal to engage with these communities, which he believes is among the main reasons the regime persists. Taleblu warns against Western efforts to divide the country, emphasizing the need for unity among Iranians to achieve a successful transition.