Russia has not officially declared war on Ukraine, despite the devastating toll of the conflict and the scale of operations. The Kremlin’s reluctance to formally declare war reflects a strategic calculation to avoid domestic backlash, which could jeopardize Putin’s grip on power. Analysts point out that Russia’s economy and industries are already aligned with a wartime footing, yet the formal declaration remains pending due to this political risk.
Experts argue that while Russia’s military operations have been extensive, the lack of a formal declaration underscores the Kremlin’s careful management of the war narrative. This approach is seen as a means to shield the Russian populace from the full weight of the war’s consequences, preventing widespread unrest. However, as the war drags on, the pressure mounts, with some hardliners pressuring Putin for a formal declaration to enable further escalation against Ukraine.
The implications of such a declaration are significant. A full mobilization would shift the Russian economy to a wartime footing, with substantial defense spending and industrial output. However, the Kremlin has opted for a strategy of offering financial incentives to volunteers rather than a full mobilization, which could prove unsustainable in the long term as losses escalate. This strategy allows Putin to maintain control without triggering immediate domestic unrest.
Internationally, a formal declaration would change the geopolitical narrative, signaling a more aggressive stance against Ukraine and challenging NATO’s perception of Russia’s intentions. Analysts suggest that this move could complicate Russia’s diplomatic relations and increase tensions with Western allies, highlighting the complex interplay between the war’s realities and Russia’s strategic communication.