Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s ability to pass the ‘big, beautiful bill’ is hinging on Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s support. The Alaska senator has been the focus of intense GOP leadership efforts in recent hours, as they attempt to reassure her regarding Medicaid and food assistance provisions. Thune, Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso spent an hour on the floor conversing with Murkowski, and they briefly met in Thune’s office before emerging shortly before 4 a.m. with no details shared.
Just moments ago, the Senate parliamentarian ruled that proposed SNAP carve-outs for an expanded list of states, including Alaska, are compliant with the Byrd rule. However, a provision that would have boosted federal payments for Medicaid in Alaska and four other states was deemed noncompliant by the parliamentarian, according to a person who shared this decision confidentially. Murkowski, who has also been pushing for an amendment to undo the rollback of clean-energy credits under the Biden-era climate law, is once again at a critical juncture in the GOP’s legislative strategy.
Thune’s confidence in securing votes has been tested, with Rand Paul (R-Ky.), long a ‘no’ on the bill due to its debt-ceiling hike, recently huddling with Thune in his office. The outcome of this meeting remains unclear, adding another layer of uncertainty. At the same time, Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (Maine) reiterated her concerns about the bill, saying she had reservations from the start and preferred a separate track for the tax aspect of the policy package. Her attempt to secure increased funding for rural hospitals was unsuccessful, further complicating her position.
Notably, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.)’s divisive amendment to scale back federal payments under the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion has leadership support but has drawn criticism from other Senate Republicans. Scott, however, remains confident it will pass, despite the opposition from some GOP senators. This internal debate continues to shape the final stages of the vote-a-rama.
As the Senate wrestles with these critical issues, the path to passage remains uncertain. The outcome of Murkowski’s stance, along with the support or resistance from key Republicans like Collins and Scott, will have a major impact on the future of the ‘megabill’ and its implications for policy and governance in Washington.