South Korea’s Population Could Collapse by 85% by 2125, Warns New Study
A study by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future warns that South Korea could lose up to 85% of its population by 2125 if current demographic trends persist. The projections indicate a drastic decline from 51.68 million to as few as 7.53 million, raising concerns about economic sustainability and societal structure.
Demographic Projections and Economic Implications
The research, released by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future, shows that even in the most optimistic scenarios, South Korea’s population could drop to 15.73 million by 2125. The median estimate forecasts a population of 11.15 million, a significant reduction from the current 51.68 million. In the worst-case scenario, the population could fall to 7.53 million, which is less than the current population of Seoul, the capital city.
This demographic shift is attributed to persistently low birth rates and an aging population, leading to an ‘inverted pyramid’ society where the number of elderly dependents exceeds the working-age population. By 2125, for every 100 people of working age, there could be 140 seniors aged 65 or older, significantly straining the economy and social support systems.
Factors Influencing the Decline
The study highlights that the decline is not solely due to low birth rates but also a compounding effect where each smaller generation leads to fewer potential parents, accelerating the overall population decrease. Additionally, the report notes that younger generations prioritize financial stability and housing over marriage and family, with financial pressure being a major concern in decisions about having children.
The findings also reveal that economic factors currently play a more significant role in marriage and parenthood decisions than personal choices, indicating a shift in societal values and priorities. As of 2024, the country’s total fertility rate has risen just 0.75, remaining far below the replacement level of 2.1, underscoring the ongoing challenge of demographic decline.
Call for Policy Reforms
The projections highlight the urgent need for policy reforms to address the demographic crisis. South Korea faces not only a population decline but also the challenges of an aging society, requiring substantial interventions to ensure economic sustainability and social stability. The government and policymakers are under pressure to implement effective measures to reverse the trend and mitigate the long-term impacts of this demographic shift.