The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released estimates that the Medicaid portions of the GOP megabill could lead to 10.3 million people losing coverage under the health safety net program and 7.6 million becoming uninsured. These predictions have been outline in a CBO report released on Tuesday, with the report coinciding with the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s impending markup of the legislation. The committee is tasked with identifying $880 billion in savings, and the CBO has confirmed that these measures are on track to meet the target. The report also indicates that many of the major Medicaid policies could contribute to $625 billion in savings over the coming decade.
Work requirements would produce the biggest savings in the bill, accounting for nearly $301 billion over a decade — deeper than what had been initially anticipated. Overturning Biden-era rules on the program would save nearly $163 billion, and a moratorium on new taxes that states levy on providers to help finance their programs would recoup roughly $87 billion.
Republicans have argued that the changes will streamline Medicaid and allow it to better focus on serving the most vulnerable beneficiaries. Democrats have argued the changes will lead to devastating impacts on health care access and have made the case — including by pointing to previous CBO estimates — that work requirements would simply remove people from coverage rather than motivate beneficiaries to find jobs.
“Republicans are trying to say this is kind of a moderate bill,” Energy and Commerce ranking member Frank Pallone told reporters Monday. “Nothing could be further from the truth.”