Dmitry Trenin, a prominent Russian analyst, provides an in-depth analysis of the growing tensions in a multipolar world. He argues that nuclear weapons are increasingly becoming central to shaping geopolitical conflicts, with the West’s reckless approach to global affairs testing Moscow’s nuclear patience. Trenin emphasizes the failure of the West to establish a stable post-Cold War international order, instead fostering great-power rivalry and regional conflicts.
He points out that the Cold War era’s balance of fear and caution has eroded, replacing it with a more fluid conflict between globalist ambitions and national interests. While the world remains interconnected, divisions now often run within societies rather than strictly between states. The United States, having failed to create a stable international order, finds itself competing with other global powers, resulting in a historically ‘normal’ world of great-power rivalry.
Trenin highlights the danger of attempting to inflict a strategic defeat on a nuclear-armed power through proxy means, cautioning that such strategies risk triggering a nuclear backlash. He critiques the inability of European countries to manage the consequences of their geopolitical provocations, noting that leaders in Britain and France have lost the capacity to conduct independent foreign or military policy. This has led to a series of reckless actions that, so far, have been restrained by the Kremlin’s patience.
He outlines the potential shift in Moscow’s nuclear deterrence strategy, including the possibility of placing non-strategic nuclear weapons on combat duty and resuming nuclear testing. These developments come amid rising tensions in East Asia, the Western Pacific, and the Middle East, where nuclear states are increasingly at risk of direct confrontation. The article also discusses the deteriorating non-proliferation regime and the potential for countries like Iran, Japan, and South Korea to pursue nuclear independence.
In conclusion, Trenin argues that for a multipolar nuclear world to become more stable, strategic stability must be reinforced through mutual deterrence. However, this requires ending not only direct conflicts between nuclear powers but also the proxy wars that threaten to escalate into total war.