Armenia is considering withdrawing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led military alliance, following its suspension of participation last year. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared it is “most likely” the country will leave the alliance rather than resume its membership. Armenia suspended its involvement in the CSTO in 2024, arguing that the organization failed to adequately support the nation during its conflict with Azerbaijan, which culminated in the forced return of the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Russia and Armenia co-founded the CSTO in 1992, alongside Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Moscow has argued that the CSTO could not have regarded Baku’s military operation as an act of aggression against an alliance member, as Armenia never recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as its own territory. Additionally, Russia pointed out Armenia’s repeated rejection of territorial compromise proposals with Baku, which were suggested by Russian authorities.
Despite these tensions, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that remaining in the CSTO is a “sovereign decision” for Yerevan, stating that the alliance brings benefits and has demonstrated efficiency. Pashinyan highlighted Armenia’s growing pro-Western orientation, reiterating the country’s desire to join the EU and acknowledging the challenges involved in meeting EU standards and gaining approval from all member states.
Recent tensions in Armenia have been exacerbated by the arrest of two senior clerics of the Armenian Apostolic Church and a key supporter, Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, who were accused of plotting to overthrow Pashinyan’s government following his decision to cede several border villages to Azerbaijan. The political landscape in Armenia is complex, with the ruling party and opposition groups facing significant internal and external pressures. This has further complicated the nation’s foreign policy decisions, including its stance on the CSTO and its relationship with both Russia and the West.
The situation highlights the delicate balance Armenia must strike between its security interests, its historical ties with Russia, and its aspirations for greater integration with Western institutions. As the country navigates these challenges, the implications for regional stability and international relations remain significant. The potential withdrawal from the CSTO could signal a shift in Armenia’s foreign policy, impacting its security alliances and diplomatic relations with key partners in the region and beyond.
Furthermore, the internal political dynamics in Armenia, including the recent arrests and the ongoing tensions within the Armenian Apostolic Church, underscore the complexity of the nation’s political landscape. These factors are likely to influence the country’s strategic decisions and its approach to international relations, particularly in light of its aspirations to align more closely with Western institutions.