Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee for governor of Virginia, continues to hold a substantial lead over her Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, according to a recent poll conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University. The survey, which was carried out between June 19 and July 3, shows that 49% of registered voters support Spanberger, compared to 37% for Earle-Sears. This margin of 12 percentage points marks a significant advantage for Spanberger. The poll not only highlights her strong position in the race but also indicates that Spanberger is performing better than she did in the December Commonwealth poll, where she had an 10-point lead over Earle-Sears.
The survey also reveals that the cost of living remains the most pressing issue for voters, with reproductive rights and immigration also ranking high on the list of concerns. Spanberger, who previously served as a representative for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District from 2019 to 2025 and had experience in the CIA, is focusing on these issues by promoting her ‘Affordable Virginia Plan.’ This initiative outlines her vision for reducing housing costs, lowering energy prices, and making health care more affordable for Virginians.
One of the most notable aspects of the poll is the strong support she enjoys among young voters, with those aged 18-24 years old siding with Spanberger by a margin of 31 percentage points. This demographic advantage is a crucial factor in the race, as younger voters are often seen as a key voting bloc. Additionally, her campaign has outraised Earle-Sears by more than $4 million in the last three months, with over $10 million raised between April and June according to a report filed with the Virginia State Board of Elections.
The Commonwealth survey, which included 764 registered voters, was conducted via both landline and cell phone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, which means the results are considered reliable within that range. The data from the poll not only reflects the current state of the race but also provides insight into the concerns and priorities of Virginia voters.