With the Sept. 30 fiscal year shutdown deadline rapidly approaching, Congress finds itself at a crucial crossroads as it aims to pass 12 spending bills. The Senate is expected to initiate its first round of appropriations measures in the coming days, with full committee markups continuing in both chambers. In contrast, the House appropriators plan to conduct a subcommittee markup of the Treasury, Judiciary, and IRS funding bill on Monday evening, though no funding measures are currently on the floor schedule.
Amid this unfolding scenario, Democrats are grappling with their strategy for influencing the appropriations process. The Senate requires 60 votes to pass funding bills, and while Democrats have not yet solidified their approach, they are reportedly concerned about the ongoing issues regarding funding freezes, cancellations, and the reversal of approved measures by the Trump administration and its allies. Despite these challenges, Democrats have thus far avoided threatening a potential government shutdown on October 1 unless Republicans change course. This dilemma mirrors the one Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer faced back in March, where he ultimately chose to prioritize avoiding shutdown impacts over potential losses from Trump administration actions.
The political landscape is further complicated by the August recess considerations. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is considering accelerating the funding process before the recess, which has gained additional momentum due to President Trump’s call for the Senate to remain through the recess to continue confirming his nominees. However, many Republican lawmakers are interested in returning to their districts to highlight successes from the GOP megabill and counter Democratic messaging about Medicaid cuts in the new law.
Internally, the Freedom Caucus poses a potential roadblock. This faction has a history of undermining legislative dealmaking through hard-line demands, as witnessed during the recent crypto bill discussions. Chairs of key panels, including Reps. French Hill and G.T. Thompson, experienced this challenge firsthand. If the Freedom Caucus insists on lowering spending levels or inserting conservative policy riders in appropriations bills, it may push House Democrats to decide whether to support the GOP or risk a shutdown. This internal tension highlights the fragility of the current political environment as Congress navigates its most critical fiscal negotiations.