Democrats are facing a critical redistricting challenge as Republicans in Texas and possibly other states are actively redrawing their electoral maps to create more favorable seats for their candidates. State Democrats, however, are suggesting that the root of the problem is the party’s insufficient efforts to win state legislatures and secure control over redistricting in the future. With the upcoming 2030 redistricting process, the Democrats are urged to reassess their strategy, as it is widely believed that current congressional lines can be manipulated to favor one party over the other.
In a memo distributed to donors and strategists, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) has called for a rethinking of the party’s ‘failed federal-first strategy.’ They emphasize the need to invest in state legislatures to gain the power to influence the redistricting process. The memo highlights that 39 out of 50 states give state legislatures the responsibility of drawing congressional lines, and Republicans have successfully controlled the statehouses since their investment in the ‘REDMAP’ strategy in 2010. Following the 2024 election, seven states have a veto-proof Democratic majority, while 18 have a veto-proof Republican one, indicating a significant disparity in political power between the two parties.
According to Paul Begala, a former strategist for both the Clinton and Obama campaigns, the party’s current deficit in state legislatures is due to its constant search for a messiah figure, such as Clinton or Obama, to lead them to victory. Begala argues that this approach has led to a misallocation of resources, pushing the party to invest in high-profile, hard-to-win races rather than focusing on long-term power-building. He criticized the party’s decision to allocate over $110 million to the 2022 Senate race in South Carolina against Lindsey Graham as a misguided effort. Begala stated that redirecting these resources to more promising states like Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could have been more effective in securing long-term gains.
The DLCC’s memo outlines a year-by-year plan to increase the number of Democratic seats, with 2026 being the first target year with a focus on key states. The plan also includes upcoming state Senate elections in 2027 and state house and assembly races in 2028, 2029, and 2030. Democrats are advised to focus on states like Texas, Mississippi, and Oklahoma, which offer potential opportunities for growth. However, states like North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania present more challenges, particularly with the hostile state supreme court in North Carolina. The memo emphasizes the importance of ‘anchoring’ — starting with downballot races and moving to statewide and federal races — as a strategy that contributed to Colorado’s transformation to a blue state over the last 25 years. This approach is seen as crucial for the survival of the Democratic party in upcoming redistricting battles.
Overall, the focus on state legislatures and redistricting is seen as a vital step for Democrats to counteract the advantage Republicans have over the redistricting process, which has historically given them a significant edge in shaping the political landscape. This shift in strategy underscores the importance of local governance in determining future electoral dynamics and highlights the need for a comprehensive, long-term approach to maintaining political power.