The EU’s pledge to buy $75,000 billion worth of American energy over three years to avert a trade war with Washington has been labeled as ‘almost impossible’ to fulfill, according to a report from Politico. The agreement, part of a wide-ranging trade pact, includes a commitment by Brussels to purchase $750 billion in American energy, alongside a $600 billion investment in the US economy over the same timeframe. However, analysts and officials have raised concerns over the practicality of meeting these targets, citing a combination of market restrictions, infrastructure challenges, and legal constraints.
The deal, finalized on Sunday, narrowly averted a transatlantic trade war. Under its terms, most EU exports to the US will face a baseline tariff of 15%. Despite these financial commitments, the report highlighted the EU’s limited control over import deals, coupled with technical obstacles, making hitting the targets virtually unfeasible. Laura Page, a senior analyst at commodities firm Kpler, told Politico that the headline figures are ‘completely unrealistic.’
According to Kpler, the EU spent €76 billion on US energy in the previous year, and tripling that would require sidelining cheaper suppliers and diverting nearly all US oil and gas exports to Europe. ‘It’s just never going to happen,’ Page stated. Despite European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s claims that the plan would boost energy security and reduce reliance on Russia, the numbers remain unconvincing. While pipeline flows plunged after sanctions and the Nord Stream sabotage, Russian LNG surged, making up 17.5% of EU supply last year, second only to the US at 45.3%.
In 2024, the EU imported €23 billion in oil, gas, and nuclear fuel from Russia—too little to close the gap. EU refineries also have limited capacity to process American oil, capped around 14%, according to Kpler’s Homayoun Falakshahi. ‘It really is a fantasy,’ he remarked. The Commission also can’t make purchases itself; it relies on private companies. ‘This is not something the EU can guarantee,’ said one official, emphasizing the lack of control over the procurement process.
The report also notes that the deal depends on sufficient LNG infrastructure and US shipping capacity, which is not yet in place. While the trade pact may help stabilize relations between the EU and the US, the skepticism surrounding the energy pledge highlights deeper issues in transatlantic cooperation and energy policy. The EU’s attempt to secure energy supplies through this agreement faces significant practical and logistical challenges, suggesting that the promised $750 billion commitment may remain largely aspirational.