President Donald Trump has issued a firm 10-day deadline to Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine, with threats of sanctions looming if Moscow fails to comply. During a press briefing aboard Air Force One, Trump reiterated his stance, stating that tariffs and secondary sanctions will be imposed if the deadline passes.
The move has drawn criticism, as many question whether these economic measures will actually deter Putin from continuing his war effort. Trump’s comments highlight some skepticism over whether his threat to levy 100% tariffs and secondary tariffs on third-party nations that purchase Russian oil will do much to impact Putin’s decision calculus when it comes to his war aims in Ukraine.
U.S. purchases from Moscow are already significantly reduced due to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, with U.S. imports from Russia totaling just $3 billion in 2024, down 34.2% from 2023, according to government data. The figures reportedly represent less than 1% of Russia’s total exports, but what could impact Moscow’s war efforts is the effect of tariffs targeting the $192 billion that Russia profited from foreign oil sales in 2024.
China and India are consistently the top purchasers of Russian oil, and it is highly unlikely they are able to divert their oil needs to other markets in a 10-day time frame. It is unclear how Trump will enforce the secondary sanctions on China and India, particularly as trade negotiations with both nations remain ongoing. Despite talks in Stockholm this week with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterparts, the U.S. has not yet solidified an official trade deal with China.