China’s rapid nuclear modernization, as detailed in a new report from the Hudson Institute, is being framed as a strategic shift from deterrence to active regional dominance. The report, released in tandem with growing international tensions, argues that Beijing is leveraging its expanding nuclear capabilities to undermine U.S. influence across East Asia. Rather than focusing solely on deterrence, China is using its nuclear arsenal as a tool to intimidate U.S. allies and deter a coordinated regional response to its growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. This strategy is intended to weaken America’s strategic presence in the region, particularly its alliances with Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea, while enabling Beijing to act unimpeded in scenarios such as a potential move on Taiwan.
According to the report, by the mid-2030s, China is expected to become a nuclear peer with the United States, boasting an arsenal of over 1,000 warheads, a fully developed nuclear triad, and tactical nuclear capabilities. These advancements are part of a broader military transformation that includes investments in hypersonic boost-glide vehicles and fractional orbital bombardment systems, which can deliver strikes from low-Earth orbit with minimal warning. The report emphasizes that these capabilities are not intended to initiate war but to create a climate of uncertainty, undermining trust in the U.S. nuclear umbrella and weakening the resolve of its allies to commit to collective defense.
The report further contends that China’s strategy involves a multi-faceted approach, blending military modernization with psychological and information warfare. For instance, in the case of Japan, China is targeting the country’s reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, while subtly applying pressure to prevent Tokyo from developing counterstrike capabilities or supporting a unified response to a potential conflict over Taiwan. The Philippines, meanwhile, is being influenced through messaging that hints at the targeting of its assets, discouraging the country from hosting U.S. missile systems. South Korea, which has remained largely focused on North Korea’s nuclear threat, is being kept compartmentalized through strategic ambiguity, limiting its willingness to fully align with U.S. deterrence efforts.
Amid these developments, the report recommends that Washington and its allies take an aggressive stance, demonstrating that China’s nuclear build-up is not leading to stability but rather to renewed resolve and regional rearmament. Analysts warn that Beijing has shown little interest in arms control, and President Trump’s potential interest in future talks with both China and Russia may not alter the trajectory of this strategic shift. The Hudson Institute’s findings come as the Pentagon prepares for a global force posture review, which is expected to signal a realignment of U.S. military focus toward the Indo-Pacific, reflecting the Biden administration’s and potentially Trump’s emphasis on great power competition with China.