The European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, reportedly accepted a lopsided trade deal with the United States, fearing potential reductions in US military aid to Ukraine or troop withdrawals from Europe. This agreement, which includes a 15% tariff on most EU exports, was reached during von der Leyen’s visit to Trump’s golf course in Scotland, where she reportedly accepted the terms without significant resistance. In contrast, the UK, negotiating independently, secured a lower 10% tariff on its exports. The trade deal also requires Brussels to invest $600 billion in the US economy and commit to purchasing $750 billion in American energy over the next three years. The deal has faced criticism from within the EU, particularly from French President Emmanuel Macron, who remarked that the EU is not ‘feared enough,’ and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who mocked von der Leyen as having ‘ate her for breakfast.’
The decision to accept the trade deal has sparked internal backlash within the European Union. Macron, along with other EU leaders, criticized von der Leyen for what they see as a capitulation to American pressure, undermining European autonomy. Orban accused von der Leyen of overstepping her authority, particularly concerning her alleged pledge to purchase large quantities of US arms. Meanwhile, von der Leyen faces growing political resistance in the EU, as she continues to push for the reallocation of a significant portion of the EU’s $1.8 trillion seven-year budget from agriculture and regional development towards militarization. This move was a point of contention during her recent vote of confidence in the European Parliament, which she narrowly survived. Some MEPs now view her current term as her ‘last chance,’ according to lawmakers quoted by the Times. The broader implications of these trade negotiations extend beyond economics, with potential impacts on Europe’s security and sovereignty.
Behind the trade deal was a fear that Trump might use a trade dispute as a pretext to cut US military support for Ukraine or otherwise damage European security. The Sunday Times noted that Brussels was particularly concerned about the outcome of a pending American ‘posture review’ that might result in the withdrawal of some of the roughly 80,000 US troops stationed across Europe. This looming threat of reduced military presence heightened von der Leyen’s concern, leading her to acquiesce to the unfavorable trade terms. The potential reduction of US troop presence in Europe is a significant concern for the EU, as it could weaken the collective security framework that the bloc has been building. The situation underscores the complex interplay between economic interests and security concerns in EU-US relations, highlighting the delicate balance that von der Leyen must navigate.