NATO faces a growing hybrid warfare threat as Russian drone incursions into Lithuania and strikes near Romania’s border raise questions about the alliance’s unity and response. Days before the U.S. prepares to impose harsh new sanctions tied to the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has tested the political will of NATO’s collective defense guarantee, Article 5.
Recent days have seen drones launched from the Russian-aligned state of Belarus pierce Lithuania’s airspace, prompting alarm across the region’s political and military leaders. One drone traversed approximately 100 kilometers, loitered ominously over Vilnius carrying two kilograms of explosives and ultimately crashed within a military training zone. A similar incident occurred in July when another drone forced the evacuation of high-level officials near the Šumskas border crossing.
Meanwhile, Russian forces struck a Ukrainian gas depot just yards from Romania’s border, a strike that triggered warnings and led to Romanian F-16s patrolling the area. While these incidents appear isolated, observers note a troubling pattern, with Russian drones drifting — or even being directed — into NATO airspace. The alliance’s response has been muted.
Andrew D’Anieri, associate director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, told Fox News Digital that while the intent of Putin’s actions remains unclear, his apparent lack of caution is significant. “The kind of alarming thing is, we haven’t seen any real response from NATO to any of these,” D’Anieri said.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė confirmed that while there is no evidence of intentional breaching, the incident is “unprecedented and alarming,” especially as the drone flew just one kilometer from the president’s residence. She warned that these “reckless drone incursions” amount to a direct test of NATO’s resolve and called for a reassessment of defensive protocols and a bolstering of air defenses.
Romania, having experienced repeated drone spillovers, passed a law this May empowering its forces to intercept unauthorized drones, which may have prevented the latest strike from occurring in the border area. Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, has warned for months about Russia’s growing use of hybrid tactics and the likelihood of NATO invoking Article 5 in the future.
Kahl’s concerns intensified in June 2025, as he suggested Moscow appears intent on testing NATO’s unity and collective defense. He warned that Russian officials doubt the alliance’s willingness to uphold Article 5 and may instead deploy covert measures to probe NATO’s response. Former Lithuanian Ambassador Eitvydas Bajarūnas echoed this sentiment, calling for a unified NATO response to these incursions.
PuPutin’s hybrid probes, from drone flights to border strikes, may well mark the new battleground in Eastern Europe, where the test is not one of tanks or missiles, but of unity, readiness, and political will. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has given Putin until Friday to achieve a breakthrough in peace negotiations, after which he has promised to enact steep sanctions targeting Russia’s oil-backed war efforts.