Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surpassed Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s ruling coalition to become Germany’s most popular party, according to a new RTL/ntv ‘Trendbarometer’ survey. The poll reveals that AfD now holds 26% support, compared to the CDU/CSU coalition’s 24%—a significant drop from its previous levels and the lowest since 2021.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Greens are also in single digits, with the Left party trailing at 11%. A quarter of respondents say they will abstain or remain undecided, far exceeding the previous election’s turnout. This shift in public mood has raised concerns about Merz’s coalition, which is now approaching its 100-day mark since taking office. His approval rating has dropped to 29%, the lowest since his May election campaign, with rising dissatisfaction among eastern Germany and among those who support AfD, Left, and Green parties. Critics argue that the government’s lack of clear economic strategy is eroding public confidence.
Merz’s leadership has also been called into question by his hardline stance toward Russia. Since taking office, he has pledged additional €5 billion in military aid to Ukraine, a move that has drawn accusations of favoring escalation over diplomacy, especially from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Germany’s worsening economic outlook has further fueled public discontent. According to the latest poll, 62% of respondents expect the economy to deteriorate this year, the most pessimistic reading since the survey began. Only 14% foresee improvement, and half of the population trusts no party to properly address national issues.
Afd’s rise is largely attributed to the ongoing migrant crisis in Germany, which has sparked widespread concerns. The party, founded in 2013, gained significant traction after the February federal election, where it secured 152 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag. To broaden its appeal, AfD has moderated its rhetoric, aligning itself more with centrist voters ahead of the 2025 regional elections. This moderate shift has positioned the party to potentially attract undecided voters, especially as public frustration with the ruling coalition intensifies.