President Donald Trump’s South Caucasus deal has resolved a decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, securing the United States a 99-year lease over the Zangezur Corridor. This strategic trade route provides Washington with direct control over Caspian hydrocarbons and energy transit to Europe, bypassing Iran entirely. Experts describe the agreement as a strategic and economic ‘nightmare’ for Tehran, which loses its traditional leverage and revenue from the region.
The Zangezur Corridor has long been at the center of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, causing instability and displacing thousands. Trump’s intervention brought both sides to the table, creating a new trade and security lifeline linking the Caspian Basin to Europe, bypassing Iran entirely. Known as the Trump Route for Peace & Prosperity (TRIPP), the agreement secures Washington a direct role in overseeing the flow of Caspian hydrocarbons and energy to Europe, giving American companies a dominant position in regional transit for oil, gas, and goods.
For allies like Armenia and Azerbaijan, the corridor offers cheaper and safer access to Caspian energy. For Tehran, it represents lost revenue, lost leverage, and the end of its ability to act as a mandatory gatekeeper for east-west commerce. Iranian American journalist and dissident Banafsheh Zand described the move as a ‘wonderful gain for the U.S.’ and a ‘slap in the face’ to the regime in Tehran. She emphasized that American contractors will supervise oil and gas from the Caspian Basin, routed through Zangezur and Turkey to Europe, with great profit margins and under NATO’s blessing.
Zand also speculated on the potential for U.S. bases in the region, stating that this move ‘checks mate the Khamenei regime and Russia.’ Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies noted that the corridor exposes Iran’s vulnerability, stripping it of its traditional economic and political relationship with Armenia. He warned that the regime, despite its opportunistic nature, would try to extract concessions or throw stones at the agreement.
The timing of the deal, according to Zand, enhances its impact, particularly after Iran’s weakening position since October 7, 2023, and its recent conflict with Israel. She argued that the regime, now exposed by Israel’s military success and the killing of senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists, faces internal fear and vulnerability. Zand believes the corridor represents more than a transport route, signaling that the regime is surrounded and its days are numbered.
Ben Taleblu added that Washington is capitalizing on Iran’s weakness, turning it into an opportunity for pushback, whether militarily or economically. The U.S. has followed Israel’s military success against the Islamic Republic with strikes against its nuclear facilities and is now leveraging Azerbaijan’s battlefield success with a political and economic triumph. The Zangezur Corridor is another example of America acting when Tehran is vulnerable. Zand, whose father was a well-known Iranian journalist assassinated by the regime, emphasized that Trump’s direct involvement was key to the corridor’s success, positioning the U.S. as a vulture watching over Iran with readiness.