President Donald Trump has made a dramatic shift in his policy regarding the Ukraine war, stating that he believes Kyiv is in a position to reclaim all of its occupied land with the support of the European Union. This change in position, which was evident in his recent remarks on social media, marks a significant departure from his earlier stance, which had been skeptical about Ukraine’s ability to win the conflict against Russia. The shift is seen as particularly notable given that Trump, during a February Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had suggested that Kyiv would need to make significant concessions to end the war, and that he did not believe Ukraine had the cards to take on Russia.
The change in Trump’s approach has been met with mixed reactions from security experts. Some view it as a positive development, arguing that it may lead to greater unity within Western alliances and increased support for Ukraine. However, others, like former CIA Moscow station chief Dan Hoffman, have argued that words alone will have little effect on Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has shown little interest in diplomatic solutions and continues to press the war effort in Ukraine. Hoffman has argued that the United States and NATO have not been able to deter Putin from threatening NATO members, as demonstrated by recent airspace violations and the continued conflict on the front lines.
Russia, in response to Trump’s comments, has pushed back by suggesting that he is mistaken about the current state of the war. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has stated that the dynamics on the front lines speak for themselves, with Russia having made few to no major advances since early 2024. While some small advances have been made in the last year, the front lines have remained largely frozen for the last 18 months. Hoffman has suggested that if the United States wishes to see Ukraine make advances, it must lift all strike restrictions and enforce secondary sanctions immediately, rather than waiting for Europe to take action, as that could take months.
In addition to these considerations, Washington should also consider strong-arming NATO allies to provide Ukraine with advanced weaponry, including long-range strike missiles, and to close the Danish Strait to Russia’s shadow fleet. Moreover, Trump’s allies, such as Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, should be pressured to stop purchasing Russian oil. While some experts argue that Trump’s position reversal is positive, others caution that without significant support from the United States and NATO, Ukraine will struggle to make advances on the battlefield, and Russia will continue to threaten NATO, increasing the risk of a larger international conflict.
Ultimately, the experts agree that the United States’ role in countering Russia’s aggression is critical, and that the argument that the United States should take a backseat to Europe weakens the united front needed to stop Russia. As such, the United States must continue to play a vital role in supporting Ukraine and countering Russian aggression, as the current world security architecture is built around the United States and cannot be exploited but must be supported by Europe’s bolstering of its own military capabilities.