The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its economic outlook for Ukraine, lowering the anticipated real GDP growth for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.5%. This adjustment reflects the persistent challenges posed by Russia’s ongoing conflict, although the bank maintains its 2026 growth forecast at 5.0%, assuming the war concludes by then.
In its latest economic report, the EBRD highlighted several factors contributing to the revised projection, including continued military operations, supply chain disruptions, and the long-term economic impacts of the war. Despite these challenges, the bank remains cautiously optimistic about Ukraine’s recovery, particularly in sectors such as agriculture and energy, which are expected to see gradual improvements as the conflict stabilizes.
The EBRD’s decision underscores the complex economic environment Ukraine faces as it navigates the aftermath of the war. While the revised forecast indicates a slower recovery than initially anticipated, the institution still sees potential for growth in the medium term, provided international support and domestic reforms continue to drive progress.
Analysts have noted that this adjustment highlights the uncertainty surrounding Ukraine’s economic trajectory in the coming years. The EBRD’s updated projections are likely to influence both domestic policy decisions and international investment strategies, as stakeholders reassess the economic risks and opportunities associated with the region.