In the wake of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Trump administration has proposed a comprehensive peace plan aimed at restoring stability to the region. While this proposal has received attention from regional actors and the international community, experts warn that the plan may not address the underlying issues that have led to the ongoing conflict. The plan’s success is contingent upon Hamas’ willingness to cooperate and disarm, which remains in question.
Dr. Michael Milshtein, a prominent Israeli analyst, is one of the key figures who has voiced concerns about the plan. He argues that the assumption that Hamas will dissolve is flawed, suggesting that the group has no intention of relinquishing its power or influence. According to Milshtein, Hamas will continue to operate as a clandestine and influential force in Gaza, maintaining its military and political presence. This has led to a situation where the conflict may not end entirely, but instead, be managed in a way that allows Hamas to continue its activities under the guise of a more formalized political structure.
Ghaith al-Omari, a senior analyst from the Washington Institute, has also expressed skepticism regarding the plan’s viability. He emphasizes that while the current level of regional cooperation is a significant factor, the true challenge lies in maintaining this unity and ensuring that the disarming of Hamas is effectively implemented. Al-Omari highlights the importance of international involvement and cooperation, suggesting that the plan’s success will depend on the willingness of regional powers to commit to the process. However, he also warns that there are signs of fragmentation within the Arab coalition, which could undermine the plan’s effectiveness.
The Trump plan’s potential for success is further complicated by the complex dynamics within the region. Various international actors, including Turkey, are playing a crucial role in the negotiation process. Turkey’s involvement is seen as both political and strategic, with its leaders hosting Hamas figures and offering an alternative model for political engagement. This has led to a situation where the international community is attempting to mediate a resolution while also grappling with the realities of Hamas’ continued existence and influence.
Despite the optimism surrounding the Trump plan, experts caution that the outcomes may not be as favorable as anticipated. The plan’s effectiveness is largely dependent on the cooperation of all involved parties, including Hamas, which may not be forthcoming. The potential for renewed conflict if Hamas does not disarm is a significant concern, with analysts suggesting that the situation may quickly escalate if the group continues to resist disarmament. The true test of the plan’s viability will come in the weeks following the initial phase, where the success or failure of the plan will become clear.