New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Tightens as Polls Show Narrow Lead for Sherrill
A recent Fox News poll indicates that Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 5 points among New Jersey likely voters, down from an 8-point margin in late September. The race has narrowed significantly, with Sherrill’s edge falling within the poll’s margin of error. Among registered voters, Sherrill maintains a 4-point lead, reflecting a reduction in her previous advantage.
The poll, conducted October 10-14, 2025, surveyed 1,002 registered voters, with a subsample of 869 likely voters. The results show Sherrill leading at 50-45% among likely voters and 48-44% among registered voters. This marks a notable shift from late September, when her advantage was 8 points. Despite the narrowed margin, the race remains competitive, with both candidates having strong support within specific demographic groups.
Key groups that give Sherrill her advantage include Black voters, those under age 35, women ages 45 and younger, those with a college degree, and Hispanic voters. Conversely, Ciattarelli benefits from support among MAGA supporters, men without a college degree, White men, Catholics, and those ages 55-64. The poll highlights the growing influence of diverse demographics in shaping the outcome of the race.
Both candidates have faced recent campaign attacks that have negatively impacted their favorability ratings. Sherrill’s honesty and trustworthy ratings have dropped from a 16-point lead to a 5-point advantage, while Ciattarelli’s favorability has also declined. The allegations about Sherrill’s record at the Naval Academy have affected her support, but Ciattarelli faces criticism for the manner in which those records were obtained. Pollster Daron Shaw notes that Ciattarelli has benefited slightly due to his initial disadvantage.
The candidates’ campaign strategies have led to shifts in voter opinion. Although the race remains close, both candidates are working to solidify their support base and improve their favorability among key demographics. The candidates are competing to fill term-limited Democratic Governor Phil Murphy’s seat, who left office with a 47% positive rating and 49% negative rating among New Jersey voters. The race is expected to be influenced by voter satisfaction with the current state of affairs and the candidates’ ability to address pressing issues such as taxes and the cost of living.
Additionally, the poll includes insights into voter attitudes toward former President Donald Trump, who received 46% of the vote in the 2024 election but still lost to Kamala Harris. His current approval rating among New Jersey voters is 45% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable, reflecting a shift from his first term, when he had 36% favorable vs. 62% unfavorable. The poll also highlights the importance of voter turnout and the potential impact of a closely divided electorate on the outcome of the gubernatorial race.
As the election approaches, the candidates’ ability to maintain and strengthen their support base will be critical in determining the next governor of New Jersey. The race continues to evolve, with both candidates vying for the loyalty of a diverse and potentially fragmented electorate.