The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised down its GDP growth forecasts for both 2025 and 2026, reflecting the country’s ongoing economic challenges. The revised 2025 projection stands at 1.9% compared to the previously anticipated 2.1%, while the 2026 forecast has been adjusted to 2% from 2.3%. These changes come amid a backdrop of significant economic pressures, including energy shortages, damage to gas production facilities, and a labor shortage that has been affecting the country’s ability to sustain its economic growth.
According to the NBU, the decline in the growth forecast is primarily attributed to the persistent energy crisis. The destruction of key gas production facilities, which were impacted during the ongoing conflict, has limited the country’s capacity to produce sufficient energy. Additionally, the labor shortage is exacerbating the situation, as many workers are either displaced or unable to return to their jobs due to the ongoing conflict and related disruptions. These factors collectively contribute to the downward revision in economic growth expectations.
The revised forecasts signal a more cautious outlook for Ukraine’s economy in the near future. The National Bank has emphasized that while the current challenges are significant, the country remains committed to implementing necessary measures to stabilize its economic situation. This includes efforts to diversify energy sources, attract foreign investment, and implement policies aimed at reducing the impact of labor shortages on economic productivity. Despite the downward adjustment, the NBU remains optimistic about the long-term potential of Ukraine’s economy, provided that these challenges can be effectively addressed.