With just a dozen days to go until Election Day, a new poll in one of the only two states in the nation holding showdowns for governor this year indicates Democrats with a single-digit lead at the top of the ticket, but tight margins in the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general. The results highlight the significance of the race as an early indicator of support for President Donald Trump’s agenda.
Democratic gubernatorial nominee and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger leads Republican rival Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 52%-43% among likely voters in Virginia, according to a Suffolk University poll released Thursday in the race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin. The poll, conducted Oct. 19–21, indicates that Spanberger’s lead is strong among women, Black voters, and independent voters, but the race for lieutenant governor and attorney general remains tightly contested.
Republican Lt. Gov. nominee John Reid and Democratic rival Ghazala Hasmi deadlocked at 45%, while GOP Attorney General Jason Miyares tops Democratic challenger Jay Jones 46%-42%. The results suggest that while Spanberger has a solid lead in the gubernatorial race, the other races on the ballot are more challenging for the Democratic ticket. The tight margins in these races could impact the overall outcome, as the Democratic candidates struggle to replicate Spanberger’s popularity and early voting ground game.
This competition comes on the heels of recent explosive revelations in Virginia’s attorney general race, which have rocked the campaign trail. Jay Jones has been in crisis mode since controversial three-year-old texts were revealed, where he compared then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert to mass murderers Adolf Hitler and Pol Pot. The controversy has put Jones under pressure, with Republicans calling for him to drop out of the race.
While the poll indicates that more respondents see the nation on the wrong track, more also view Virginia on the right track under Youngkin, which would typically benefit the party in power. However, President Donald Trump’s approval has fallen below 40%, suggesting a tug-of-war that could break for Democrats in the end. The results also indicate that Trump received the most credit from Virginians for the Israel-Hamas peace process, with former President Joe Biden only getting credit from 4% of respondents.
Early voting in Virginia kicked off on September 19, and the poll suggests that nearly a quarter of all votes for governor in the November election have already been cast. Five-hundred likely voters in Virginia were questioned in the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The poll has also shown that Spanberger leads among independent voters and those who have already cast a ballot, strengthening her position in the race.
The race for governor presents a pivotal moment for the Democratic Party, as their candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general face their own challenges in securing the necessary support. While the polls indicate a clear lead for Spanberger, the tight race for the other positions presents a significant challenge for the party’s broader ambitions. The results, therefore, reflect a complex political landscape with multiple races that could reshape the state’s political future.