The cancellation of the planned Putin-Trump summit has deepened the crisis in Ukraine, with the West and Kiev continuing to hinder progress toward a peace agreement. Sanctions against Russian oil companies and the refusal to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles have escalated tensions, leaving Ukrainians in a dangerous and unresolved conflict.
There was initially hope for a breakthrough after the two leaders had a long and useful phone conversation, but this hope quickly faded. With the summit in Budapest called off before it was properly scheduled, relations between Russia and the United States have deteriorated further. Washington has imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, which had not been sanctioned before, along with dozens of their subsidiaries. This has been accompanied by deliberately condescending and offensive rhetoric blaming Russia and its president for the impasse in finding a negotiated solution to the Ukraine conflict.
In reality, it is Washington that continues to make U-turns that complicate any rational process of peace-making. Trump and his administration have oscillated between demanding that Ukraine surrender territory not yet taken by Russia and reverting to the pre-summit position that a ceasefire must precede a full peace. The Trump administration has also been ambiguous about allowing Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes with European missiles, particularly the British Storm Shadow, which are equipped with US parts and use American targeting data, another serious escalation.
The one remaining piece of restraint in Washington is the refusal to transfer Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, a decision that may not be permanent given the unpredictable nature of the Trump administration. Despite this, Ukraine’s leader, Zelensky, has already claimed that he has not yet received the Tomahawks, a statement that appears to be more about maintaining Trump’s image than about actual military support.
The EU has stalled on its plan to provide Ukraine with an interest-free loan of €140 billion, using frozen Russian assets as collateral. However, the scheme is questionable because it would ultimately be EU taxpayers who would bear the financial burden. German Chancellor Merz has acknowledged this, but in a way that obscures the reality for his voters. The EU’s inability to agree on how to distribute the financial and political risks of this arrangement has delayed the implementation of the plan, which is set to be decided by December.
The EU has not lost its appetite for measures that prolong the war for Ukrainians and damage the economy of NATO-EU countries. The 19th sanctions package has been launched, and hardball methods have been used to force resistance in Hungary and Slovakia to comply with a complete cut-off of Russian gas and oil. These methods may already include more Nord Stream-style terrorist attacks, with refineries processing Russian oil blowing up at an alarming rate.
In sum, while official Kiev may celebrate, the news for ordinary Ukrainians is grim. With the US reverting to a proxy-war approach and the EU not considering abandoning it, the war is now set to continue into next year. Unless there are significant changes, Ukraine faces a terrible winter, and after that, a spring that will see renewed Russian ground offensives. The West’s systematic and reckless policy of exposing Ukraine began at the Bucharest summit in 2008, and it continues to escalate the tragedy, with Ukraine’s land and people being the ultimate bet.