Putin’s Power Consolidation Amid Kremlin Instability

Russian President Vladimir Putin is consolidating his authority by elevating younger loyalists and family members into key positions within the Kremlin, amid growing instability and economic pressure. Reports indicate that the aging leader is seeking to fortify his inner circle against potential threats from both domestic and international fronts. The Federal Security Service (FSB) has launched an investigation against exiled businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky and 22 members of the Anti-War Committee of Russia, accusing them of plotting to seize power. Analysts, including John Herbst and Henry Hale, warn that the Kremlin is experiencing a crisis of confidence, with the regime at risk of fragmentation if younger generations are not integrated into the power structure. The economic strain, exacerbated by Western sanctions and reduced oil revenues, further complicates Putin’s position, prompting discussions about potential tax increases and increased domestic borrowing to stabilize the economy. Analysts such as John Herbst, Senior Director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, noted that the Kremlin is falling into paranoia, with the Russian leader ‘running out of cards to play’ as pressure mounts both internally and externally. The situation is compounded by the fact that Putin, who has ruled Russia for over two decades, is approaching the age where he may feel his control is waning. This has led to a strategic move to bring in younger, more energetic allies who are perceived as reliable due to their close ties to the Putin family. One such figure is Anna Evgenievna Tsivilyova, née Putina, a first cousin once removed of Putin and head of the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation. Her role in both supporting Russian soldiers and managing one of the country’s largest coal companies highlights the blend of familial loyalty and political utility in Putin’s consolidation of power. Furthermore, the Kremlin’s approach is not limited to internal consolidation; it is also focused on silencing opposition abroad. The recent case against Mikhail Khodorkovsky and the Anti-War Committee exemplifies this strategy, aiming to prevent any potential challenges to Putin’s authority from within Russia or from diaspora communities. The economic challenges facing Russia are equally significant, with Western sanctions, diminished oil revenues, and the costs of the ongoing war in Ukraine creating a pressing need for financial stability. Analysts suggest that the Russian government may need to increase taxes and domestic borrowing to address the budgetary shortfall. However, these measures could further strain an already weakened economy, potentially leading to a recession if not managed carefully. Despite these challenges, there is a consensus among analysts that Putin’s regime remains relatively stable at the present time. While the risks of internal dissent and economic decline are real, the leader’s firm grip on power and strategic integration of both family and younger allies are seen as key factors in maintaining the regime’s integrity. Until the Kremlin provides a clear response to the allegations and the ongoing economic pressures, the situation remains volatile. With Putin’s age and the potential for succession issues looming, the future of the Russian regime is not guaranteed. However, for now, the consolidation of power and suppression of dissent seem to be the dominant strategies employed by the Kremlin.