In the contest for New York City mayor, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s lead has narrowed since early October, but he’s still ahead by double-digits, and his lead holds in a hypothetical two-way race.
The latest Fox News Poll, released Thursday, finds Mamdani with a 16-point lead, 47% backing him while 15% favor Republican Curtis Sliwa and 31% support independent candidate Andrew Cuomo. This shift marks a decrease from a 24-point lead in October, with Cuomo’s support increasing by 3 points and Sliwa’s remaining unchanged.
Independent candidate and former mayor Eric Adams, who dropped out of the race on September 28, still appears on the ballot, receiving 2% support. Mamdani’s strong appeal among young voters, liberals, and nonwhite communities continues, although he has seen a slight decline in support from young women and Democrats.
For Cuomo, his best support comes from Jewish voters, older voters, women over 45, and White voters without college degrees. Meanwhile, Mamdani receives greater support among men than women, while Cuomo garners more backing from women than men. The poll also highlights the decline in Sliwa’s support among Trump supporters, with his backing dropping from 60% to 47%.
In a hypothetical two-way matchup, Mamdani narrows his lead to 10 points over Cuomo, as the latter gains increased support from Republicans, older voters, women, and those without college degrees. Mamdani’s supporters remain more enthusiastic about voting, with 78% expressing strong enthusiasm, compared to 59% for Sliwa and 52% for Cuomo.
While Mamdani’s lead on key issues like the economy, crime, and taxes has weakened slightly, he still outperforms both Sliwa and Cuomo. His biggest advantage remains in the perception of providing needed change, with 50% of voters believing he will do the best job, compared to 26% for Cuomo and 20% for Sliwa. The candidates are closely matched on their ability to competently run the city.
The race is shaped by a stark generational divide, with younger voters supporting Mamdani’s vision for change and older voters expressing concerns over potential instability. Pollster Daron Shaw noted that the key factor could be voter turnout, as a strong showing by Mamdani’s younger, more enthusiastic supporters could secure his victory, while low turnout could benefit Cuomo.
The poll highlights a shift in voter sentiment, with both Mamdani and Cuomo seeing lower favorable ratings, while Sliwa and Trump experience increases in their favorable ratings. The survey also explores the importance of the candidates’ positions on Israel to voters, with nearly half considering it extremely or very important to their candidate choice.
This poll, conducted from October 24-28, 2025, includes a sample of 1,107 New York City registered voters, with a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Results among subgroups have higher sampling error, and the poll was conducted jointly by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research with a focus on demographic representativeness.
As the city gears up for the next phase of the election cycle, the race remains a critical indicator of shifting voter priorities and the potential impact of key demographic groups on the outcome of municipal governance in New York City.