A new POLITICO and Public First poll reveals deepening concerns among Americans about the rise of political violence. The survey finds that 55 percent of Americans expect political violence to increase in the United States in the next five years, and that over half believe it is likely a political candidate will be assassinated during this period. This growing concern cuts across party lines, with majorities of both Democrats and Republicans expressing apprehension about the potential for violence in American politics. The survey underscores the extent to which recent high-profile attacks — such as the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk and the attempts on former President Donald Trump’s life — have unsettled the nation and heightened public fears. While the majority of Americans reject the idea that violence is ever justified, a significant minority — 24 percent — believe that there are circumstances in which violent action could be acceptable. This belief is more common among younger voters, with more than one in three Americans under the age of 45 holding this view.
Political science professor Robert Pape, who has studied the phenomenon of political violence for decades, has shifted his stance, noting that while the country was once on the brink of a violent era, it is now firmly in the grip of it. The survey also highlights the growing concern among lawmakers and local officials, as threats against political figures have become increasingly common. The fear is that such a hostile political climate could have damaging effects on democracy, with many feeling unwilling to participate in public discourse for fear of reprisal. As the nation continues to be shaped by extreme partisanship, the question of whether political violence is an inevitable consequence or a preventable crisis remains a contentious and pressing issue.
Americans who hold negative views about major institutions, including the U.S. presidency, are particularly likely to say that violence will increase. Among Americans who hold a very negative view of the presidency, for example, 76 percent believe violence will increase, while only 15 percent believe it will decrease. The data suggest that the extreme partisanship that has come to dominate the current era of politics has in many ways shaped Americans’ feelings on violence. Forty-one percent of Americans say they feel hesitant to share their political views in public, and they are significantly more likely than others to expect politically motivated violence to increase — 68 percent, compared with 47 percent of those who feel comfortable sharing their political views.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted in September asked an open-ended question about the reasons for political violence over the last several years, and Americans’ most common answers were grounded in partisanship. More than a quarter of Democrats, 28 percent, mentioned Trump’s rhetoric, the MAGA movement or conservatives as a reason, while 16 percent of Republicans cited the rhetoric of Democrats and liberals. In the aftermath of Kirk’s killing, lawmakers on both sides urged Americans to engage with each other, even when they disagree.
“We can always point the finger at the other side,” Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) said at a press conference after authorities apprehended Kirk’s alleged killer. “At some point we have to find an off-ramp, or else it’s going to get much worse.” But even the act of engaging with others who hold different views is difficult in a bitterly divided nation: 41 percent of Americans say they don’t have a close friend who votes for a different party than them.