New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states to hold gubernatorial contests in the year following a presidential election, making their 2025 races unique in the political calendar. These contests traditionally grab outsized national attention and are viewed by political pundits as key barometers ahead of the following year’s midterm showdowns for the U.S. House and Senate. This year, the 2025 elections are seen as crucial early tests of President Donald Trump’s unprecedented second-term agenda, as his administration moves to implement far-reaching policies and initiatives.
For Democrats, the races offer their first major chance at redemption following last year’s ballot box setbacks, when the party lost control of the White House and Senate, and failed to regain the House majority. In Virginia, Democrats are aiming to win back the governor’s office, while in New Jersey, they are seeking to maintain control of the state’s executive branch. Meanwhile, Republicans are positioning themselves to capitalize on the potential shift in voter sentiment, particularly in blue-leaning states like New Jersey, where GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli has made voter registration gains over the past four years.
Political analysts are closely monitoring the significance of the cost of living argument, which was effectively used by Republicans in the previous election cycle. Chris Moyer, a seasoned Democratic strategist, argues that these elections are a ‘test case’ on how the current administration’s focus on affordability can be flipped against the incumbent party. However, Republican strategist Ryan Williams cautions that while these races are important, they may not always predict the broader trends seen in the midterms. He notes that by the time the midterms roll around, the results in New Jersey and Virginia may not play a direct role in shaping the political landscape. Nevertheless, the outcomes of these races remain critical for understanding the trajectory of the 2025 midterms and the potential impact of Trump’s agenda on the nation’s political direction.