The US government remains in a shutdown after 35 days of deadlock, but there are signs of legislative movement on Capitol Hill. Senate Republicans have begun working with some Democrats on an amended House-passed spending bill, which could fund the government through late January. The proposed bill, however, contains no provisions for healthcare or add-ons and requires 60 votes to break a Democratic filibuster. While no deal has been reached on ObamaCare subsidies, the first significant legislative movement since the shutdown began has been observed. The outcome remains uncertain, with concerns about the financial and social impact of the shutdown continuing to mount.
With the vote matrix on the previous 14 test votes, Republicans would need an additional 5 senators who caucus with the Democrats to vote yes to break a filibuster and hit 60 votes. This could come Thursday or later this week. However, what is the parliamentary elixir which prompts a group of Democrats to vote yes? A date certain on when they’d deal with ObamaCare subsidies? An agreement on the unfinished spending bills?
That’s the key. And only that will unlock this Rubik’s Cube of a shutdown. If the Senate approves it, this would then go back to the House. The House could potentially vote for the first time since September 19. Presumably, the House would then align with the Senate. That could happen this weekend.
Fox is told it’s possible some House Democrats could vote yes – going against the hardline wishes of the Democratic leadership. Especially if there is nothing in ironclad legislation as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., is asking for. In short, some Senate Democrats could in fact tick off House liberals. That is exactly what happened with the shutdown question in March.
Moreover, Democrats could walk away with the potential of very little to show – despite their holdout on the shutdown. I cannot begin to underscore the level of skittishness among many Democrats – especially moderates – and some Republicans about the shutdown.
There is grave concern about SNAP benefits, aviation safety, damage to the economy, workers off the job, people going without paychecks. Pick your poison. Today marked the first true time since the shutdown began that the legislative wheels began to move – in 35 days. But no one is quite sure how to unlock this shutdown box – barring a crisis. It’s about the math. Always. And they might not have the right combination yet to solve the riddle.