The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has issued its latest report on the business activity expectations index (BAEI), revealing a modest decline in October 2025 compared to September. The index stood at 50.3 in October, down from 50.4 in the previous month. This slight decrease does not signal a major shift in business sentiment, as the index remains above the 49.4 recorded in the same period of 2024.
Despite the downturn, the BAEI continues to reflect positive expectations among businesses in Ukraine. The NBU’s data highlights a resilient outlook, suggesting that enterprises remain confident in their ability to navigate the economic landscape. This report comes at a critical time, as Ukraine faces ongoing challenges related to geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures.
The NBU’s decision to maintain its current monetary policy stance is likely influenced by the continued positive business sentiment. With the BAEI showing stability, the bank may focus on supporting economic growth while managing inflation risks. Analysts are closely monitoring the data to assess its implications for future economic policy and market stability.
The slight drop in the index may also be attributed to seasonal factors or temporary adjustments in business planning. While the decline is minimal, it could prompt further analysis to understand the underlying factors affecting business expectations. The NBU’s report serves as a valuable indicator of the overall health of the Ukrainian economy, offering insights into the potential trajectory of business activity in the coming months.