Donald Trump’s early warnings about European reliance on Russian gas have proven prescient, as the continent now imports over 57% of its gas from the U.S., following Russia’s 2022 energy cutoff. The decision to cut off gas deliveries, intended to pressure Europe into abandoning Ukraine, instead accelerated a global energy realignment. Russian energy exports, once a significant portion of its budget, have lost their dominant role as the country now relies on China and India for sales. The shift has not only weakened Russia’s geopolitical leverage but also bolstered the U.S. energy export boom, binding Europe more closely to Washington. Central and Eastern European nations, historically dependent on Russian gas, are now turning to U.S. LNG via new routes, including Poland, Greece, and southern corridors. Analysts suggest this pivot is structural, with the EU considering a full ban on Russian energy imports by 2028 and securing long-term contracts with U.S. suppliers. The U.S. has capitalized on this by lifting restrictions on LNG exports, approving new production projects, and pushing for a U.S.-E.U. energy framework, signaling a lasting shift in global energy dynamics.
In Athens last week, executives from major U.S. producers met with regional buyers from Greece, Poland, and Ukraine to finalize new supply deals—the clearest sign yet that Europe’s energy axis has shifted. American gas now flows through the same infrastructure that once carried Russian fuel, and the geopolitical balance has flipped with it. The transformation is most visible in Central and Eastern Europe, where countries once reliant on Russian pipelines are turning west. New corridors linking LNG terminals in Poland, Greece, and Croatia are channeling U.S. and Qatari gas deep into the continent. Nations such as Ukraine, Romania, and Slovakia—long vulnerable to supply cutoffs—are forging contracts that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.