Five months after the joint Israeli and U.S. bombardment of Iran’s military and nuclear facilities during the 12-Day War, Iran has declared its missile capacity now exceeds pre-war levels. The conflict, which began with Israel’s sustained bombing campaign on Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure, saw the United States join the operation with precision strikes on nuclear sites. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, have publicly asserted that the country’s defense industry has rebounded and expanded, producing new missiles at an accelerated pace. These claims come amid concerns that renewed Iranian missile production could threaten American forces stationed in the Middle East and strain Israel’s missile defenses, potentially leading to another confrontation.
Analysts, such as Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, have noted that Iran’s post-war focus on missile development is expected given lessons from the conflict. Taleblu highlighted that Iran’s missile capabilities were already the largest in the region pre-war and now represent its primary means of deterrence and retaliation. He warned that while nuclear tensions remain, the next regional conflict may be triggered by missile-related issues rather than nuclear threats. This underscores the growing strategic importance of missile capabilities in the Middle East, with both Iran and its adversaries working to outpace each other in production and defensive technology.
Meanwhile, Iran has already demonstrated advancements in its missile and satellite technology, testing satellite launch vehicles with multi-stage propulsion systems that could be adapted for intercontinental ballistic missiles. Washington has accused Iran of using its civilian space program as a cover for nuclear weapons development. In response, Israel has been ramping up its air defense capabilities, including the deployment of its first operational high-power laser air-defense system, the Iron Beam. This system is designed to intercept a range of aerial threats at a lower cost than traditional interceptors. Both countries now view the 12-Day War as just the beginning of a longer arms race, with missile production and defensive technologies being the key battlegrounds in the region.