Researchers at the Mayo Clinic have developed a new method to predict Alzheimer’s risk years before symptoms appear, using brain scans and genetic data to estimate a 10-year likelihood of cognitive decline. This breakthrough could change how Alzheimer’s is detected and treated in the future, offering a potential early warning system for those at risk.
The study, published in *The Lancet Neurology*, was based on decades of data from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, a long-running project that tracks thousands of residents over time. Dr. Clifford Jack Jr., a radiologist at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, led the team, which analyzed brain scans, genetic factors, and medical records from over 5,800 adults. Their goal was to build a model that predicts both a person’s 10-year and lifetime risk of developing memory and thinking problems.
Two key proteins, amyloid and tau, are central to the development of Alzheimer’s. Amyloid forms sticky plaques, while tau creates tangles inside brain cells. These proteins disrupt communication between neurons and are linked to the memory loss and cognitive problems seen in Alzheimer’s. Using specialized imaging techniques, the researchers were able to measure amyloid buildup in people who were still cognitively healthy. The results were expressed on a scale from 0 to 100, where a lower score indicates fewer amyloid deposits and a higher score signals significant buildup.
The researchers factored in age, sex, and the presence of the APOE ε4 gene, a genetic variant known to increase the risk of Alzheimer’s. They also used advanced statistical techniques to project the likelihood of developing mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia over time. For example, a 75-year-old woman who carried the APOE ε4 gene and had high amyloid levels faced an over 80% lifetime risk of developing MCI. Women, overall, had a higher risk than men, and those with the gene were more likely to experience cognitive decline.
While the tool is currently used only for research, the Mayo Clinic team believes it is a step toward personalized prevention strategies. Future versions may include simpler tests, such as blood-based assays for amyloid or other biomarkers, making it easier to assess risk without expensive brain scans. The study has some limitations, including its focus on older white adults from one region, which may limit the applicability of the findings to other populations. Additionally, the study did not account for lifestyle or health factors that can influence memory and cognitive health.
Despite these limitations, the researchers see this as an important advancement in the fight against Alzheimer’s. The study was funded by the National Institute on Aging and several other organizations, underscoring the widespread interest in and investment in Alzheimer’s research. As the global population ages, the ability to predict and potentially prevent Alzheimer’s disease could have far-reaching implications for public health and medical care.