Researchers from the Mayo Clinic have pioneered a groundbreaking method to estimate an individual’s risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease long before symptoms arise, potentially transforming the landscape of early detection and treatment. The development, detailed in a study published in The Lancet Neurology, utilizes brain scans and genetic information to predict the likelihood of cognitive decline over the next decade and throughout a person’s lifetime.
Dr. Clifford Jack Jr., a radiologist at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, led the research, which drew on decades of data from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, a long-term initiative tracking thousands of participants. The team analyzed brain scans, genetic information, and medical records from over 5,800 adults to construct a predictive model that evaluates both a person’s 10-year and lifetime risk of developing cognitive impairment.
Key proteins such as amyloid and tau, which are known to accumulate in the brain years before symptoms manifest, were central to the study’s findings. Amyloid forms plaque, while tau creates tangles inside brain cells, disrupting neural communication and eventually leading to memory loss and cognitive issues characteristic of Alzheimer’s, according to the researchers.
Specialized brain imaging was used to measure amyloid buildup, providing a scale from 0 to 100 to indicate the ‘biological severity’ of Alzheimer’s in cognitively healthy individuals. A low score indicates minimal buildup, while a high score suggests significant accumulation. Co-author Dr. Ronald Petersen emphasized that this risk assessment could help individuals and their doctors make informed decisions about treatment and lifestyle adjustments aimed at delaying symptom onset.
The study also factored in age, sex, and the presence of the APOE ε4 gene, a genetic variant linked to increased Alzheimer’s risk. Utilizing advanced statistical analysis, the researchers projected the likelihood of developing mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and progression to dementia over time.
While the tool is currently used for research purposes, the Mayo Clinic team envisions future applications that may include simple blood tests for amyloid or other biomarkers, making risk assessment more accessible without the need for expensive brain scans. Funding for the study came from the National Institute on Aging, the GHR Foundation, Gates Ventures, and the Alexander Family Foundation. The researchers acknowledge the study’s limitations, noting that it primarily involved older white adults and did not account for lifestyle and health habits that could affect memory.