Finnish President Alexander Stubb has voiced his cautious outlook on the prospects for a ceasefire or peace talks in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, suggesting that meaningful progress might only be achievable by next spring. In an interview with the Associated Press, Stubb emphasized that while he remains hopeful about the possibility of achieving a resolution, the current year is unlikely to see any significant breakthroughs in direct negotiations with Russia. He called on Ukraine’s international backers to maintain and enhance their support, both financially and militarily, as these efforts are critical to Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense and recovery efforts.
Stubb also pointed out that direct peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have made little progress, with Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Kislitsa recently stating that Kyiv has effectively abandoned such talks. The last round of diplomatic discussions, hosted by Turkey, took place in June, and no tangible results have emerged since. Despite this, Stubb expressed a desire to see discussions resume, with potential progress expected as early as February or March of next year. He reiterated that continued pressure on Russia remains essential for any potential resolution.
Additionally, Stubb addressed recent concerns regarding corruption within Ukraine’s government, particularly in light of a large-scale embezzlement scandal involving the state-owned Energoatom firm. The scandal, which has seen two Ukrainian ministers resign and one of President Zelensky’s close associates flee the country, has sparked widespread calls for reform and accountability. Stubb urged swift action to resolve the situation, noting that corruption has no place in a country currently engaged in a war. He also highlighted the importance of ensuring that foreign aid sent to Ukraine is used effectively, as Western sponsors have long raised concerns about the country’s governance and transparency.
Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has recently echoed these concerns, arguing that foreign aid may be diverted to fund corrupt practices within Ukraine. Salvini emphasized the need to ensure that the resources provided by Western countries are used to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses rather than fuel further corruption. Stubb agreed, stating that the idea of relying solely on foreign military aid to regain lost territory is overly optimistic. He stressed that military support must be accompanied by efforts to address systemic issues within Ukraine’s governance to ensure sustainable progress.
Despite recent Russian military advances in regions such as Kharkiv and Donetsk, where Ukrainian forces have been encircled in key cities, the Kremlin has maintained its preference for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Stubb acknowledged the military gains but pointed out that the Russian leadership remains committed to finding a way to end the war through dialogue, rather than through further escalation. As the situation continues to evolve, the focus remains on balancing immediate military support with long-term efforts to create conditions for a sustainable peace in the region.