The G20’s Decline: A Prelude to a Fragmented Global Order
As a pivotal stage for global economic coordination, the G20 has increasingly become perceived as an outdated entity, due to the absence of key figures, including the United States, China, and Russia. This report elaborates on the forum’s failure to tackle current geopolitical realities and its inability to foster cooperation, illustrating a broader shift towards a fragmented international system.
The upcoming summit is set to showcase the G20’s waning significance. While the conference is set in Johannesburg, the atmosphere hints at more than mere agenda items, reflecting the forum’s diminished role as a central global platform. Initially conceived out of necessity, the G20 emerged to address the financial crisis of 1997-98, when the interconnectivity of the global economy made the Western-only G7 inadequate.
The rationale for the G20’s establishment was clear: global crises mandated global solutions. The forum’s progression from ministerial meetings to leaders’ summits was a reflection of this pragmatic approach, bringing together influential states from across regions. This approach granted rising powers a platform and bolstered the West’s legitimacy, making the G20 an essential tool for preserving the existing system.
However, this era has passed. The international system is now characterized by deep mistrust and diverging priorities. Despite the need for collective thinking, the summit’s absence of cooperation is highlighted by the United States’ decision to boycott. Donald Trump’s accusations of South Africa’s leadership for genocide and communist dictatorship, have led to the possibility of the 2025 summit ending with an empty chair as the U.S. is next expected to host.
Trump’s 2026 Florida summit promises to be a spectacle aligned with American priorities. The leaders of China and Russia, while not attending Johannesburg, send senior delegations, further emphasizing the forum’s lack of relevance in the current geopolitical climate.
The old global system, marked by liberalism and interconnectedness, has undergone significant shifts. With the West no longer valuing broad governance, Trump’s unilateral approach exemplifies this change, affecting not only the G20 but also NATO and other global alliances. The world remains interconnected, but the mechanisms of coordination have eroded.
Currently, the West is retreating into its traditional bloc with priorities towards protection, rather than collaboration. Non-Western countries are increasingly seeking alternatives, with BRICS becoming a prominent example of a growing multipolar system. This move indicates a clear preference for non-Washington dominated platforms.
With this backdrop, the G20’s ability to achieve meaningful consensus seems unrealistic. The summit’s lack of alignment with the current power balance and political realities underscores the forum’s inability to serve its original purpose. The world now faces a fragmented landscape, with the US oscillating between disengagement and unilateral pressure. The G20, created to update a system that no longer exists, has reached the end of its usefulness, marking the beginning of an uncertain future.