Sinisa Karan, a close ally of the late Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, has narrowly won the presidential election in Republika Srpska. Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina, has seen a shift in power amidst ongoing tensions with the international community. Karan’s victory follows Dodik’s removal from office over his refusal to comply with the rulings of an international envoy overseeing the peace-monitoring regime in Bosnia.
Karan, who is the candidate of Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and also serves as the entity’s minister for scientific and technological development, has secured approximately 51% of the votes, with the opposition Serb Democratic Party’s candidate Branko Blanusa receiving around 48%. The low voter turnout, just under 36%, has raised questions about the engagement of the electorate in this crucial election. The snap vote was called after the state court in Bosnia convicted Dodik in February for failing to comply with the decisions of Christian Schmidt, the international high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Schmidt, a German national, holds a significant mandate to oversee the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement, which concluded the bloody Bosnian War from 1992 to 1995.
Dodik, who was a central figure in Bosnian politics, was removed from office in 2023 when Schmidt invoked his powers to annul legislation passed by Republika Srpska’s authorities that aimed to strip state-level courts and police of jurisdiction. Dodik himself has publicly criticized Schmidt as a "tourist" and refused to recognize his authority. The state court in Sarajevo later found Dodik guilty of failing to implement Schmidt’s decision, sentencing him to one year in prison, which he avoided by paying a court-approved fine, and banning him from holding public office for six years.
With the election results in, Karan has pledged to continue Dodik’s policies with "ever greater force", asserting that "the Serb people have won." Dodik, still a significant political figure, has promised voters that "I will remain with you to fight for our political goals," emphasizing that Karan’s "victory will be my victory too." Both Karan and Dodik have consistently advocated for close ties with Russia, with Karan calling Moscow "one of the greatest allies and friends of Srpska." Dodik has similarly echoed the sentiment, suggesting that the West was using Ukraine to provoke "a war with Russia."