Americans are heading into the holidays uneasy about the economy, even as inflation slowly cools. Thanksgiving has become a kind of national check-in on President Donald Trump’s economic stewardship and whether voters believe his affordability promises are finally paying off.
That uncertainty is reflected in how consumers are approaching the holidays, cautious about big purchases but still willing to spend selectively when they find value. Joanne Hsu, director and chief economist of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, has noted that consumers feel it is an unfavorable time for major purchases due to high prices and borrowing costs. However, they may still be willing to spend on smaller-ticket items if they find value, as they generally lack confidence in the economy.
The disconnect between improving economic data and persistent consumer pessimism presents a significant political challenge for Trump. His campaign on affordability has been a cornerstone of his presidency, yet voter doubts persist about whether his policies are delivering on that promise.
A Fox News national survey highlights this growing discontent, with 76% of voters rating the economy negatively, compared with 67% in July and 70% at the end of former President Joe Biden’s term. Voters largely blame Trump for the downturn, with about twice as many holding him responsible for the current economy as Biden, and three times as many saying his policies have hurt them personally.
At the same time, approval of Trump’s handling of the economy has dropped to a new low, while disapproval of his overall job performance has climbed to record highs, even among some of his core supporters. Democrats have capitalized on this sentiment in recent state and local elections, using affordability as a key issue to connect with voters.
In states like Virginia, New York, and New Jersey, where high housing costs and utility bills have strained households, Democratic candidates have used Trump’s early economic moves, including his trade policies, to argue that his policies are worsening the affordability crisis rather than easing it. They have promised to rein in energy costs, expand affordable housing, and protect middle-class wages, a message that resonates with voters, reflecting a broader trend where the party that speaks most directly to people’s pocketbooks often gains support.
Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at Cato’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for trade policy studies, critiqued Trump’s early policy moves, saying they undermined his credibility. He pointed out that Trump ran on reducing inflation and promised to lower prices, yet his first major actions led to increased costs, leading to public backlash. Lincicome emphasized that the American public is not easily misled and can recognize when promises are not met.
For Trump, the real test may come not from economic data but from the conversations around Thanksgiving tables. If Americans do not yet feel the relief he promised, this holiday could highlight just how far affordability remains out of reach.