The U.S. is pursuing peace talks in Europe while building its largest Caribbean military presence in decades, targeting Venezuela’s powerful Cartel de los Soles. While Washington is trying to ease Russia’s terms for a ceasefire with Ukraine in Europe, it is taking a far tougher stance in the Western Hemisphere. The U.S. is moving to label Venezuela’s military-linked Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization and has quietly expanded its military footprint in the Caribbean. Sporadic strikes on alleged cartel boats off Venezuela’s coast have grown into the largest U.S. military presence in Southern Command’s area in a generation, with the world’s biggest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, steaming toward the Caribbean Sea. President Donald Trump has reportedly approved CIA covert measures inside Venezuela — these operations often precede military force — and U.S. planners have already drawn up target lists for cartel sites, according to The New York Times. Many believe the U.S. could soon launch direct strikes on Venezuelan territory aimed at pushing Nicolás Maduro out of power. At the same time, a top Russian commander, Colonel General Oleg Makarevich, has been reassigned from the Ukrainian front to head Russia’s Equator Task Force in Venezuela, overseeing roughly 120 troops training Venezuelan forces. Ukrainian intelligence chief Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told The War Zone that Russian military advisers are indeed operating inside Venezuela but doubted Moscow would back Maduro militarily. Retired U.S. Army colonel Seth Krummrich said Russian military advisers are there but doubted Moscow would back Maduro militarily. He added that the relationship is long-standing, with Russian military advisers in Cuba and Venezuela for decades. Many in Washington see a strategic payoff in forcing out Maduro, as it would strip Russia of its last firm foothold in the Western Hemisphere. Analysts compare this loss to Moscow’s waning influence in Syria. Other experts caution against assuming the U.S. escalation in Venezuela and its peace overtures in Europe are part of a single coordinated plan. Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at CSIS, said any overlap may be more coincidence than strategy. Berg recalled that during Trump’s first administration, some advisers floated an ‘Ukraine-for-Venezuela’ concept but it was quickly abandoned. Russia’s footprint in Latin America has grown only modestly since the early 2000s, dwarfed by China’s economic expansion. Moscow’s closest partners remain Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. Beyond them, its influence is mainly through media and selective economic pressure. If U.S. forces strike Venezuelan targets, most observers expect Russia to limit its response to intelligence sharing and disinformation, not combat support. Berg described a recent episode in which a sanctioned Ilyushin cargo plane landed in Caracas, but Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied any military assistance. Both Krummrich and Berg agree that momentum is building toward U.S. kinetic action. Berg said indications point to possible strikes between Thanksgiving and Christmas as U.S. naval and intelligence assets align and Trump signals impatience with Maduro’s attempts to stall. Whether this two-track moment represents coincidence or coordination, the stakes are high. A peace framework in Europe could stabilize one front while a new flashpoint ignites closer to home — underscoring the paradox of Washington’s posture in late 2025: seeking de-escalation abroad while bracing for confrontation in its own hemisphere.