German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has issued a stark warning, citing new intelligence assessments that suggest Moscow is preparing for a potential attack against a NATO member by 2029. This is the third time this month that senior German officials have raised alarms about a possible confrontation with Russia, underscoring the growing concern over Russian military expansion and its ambitions toward Eastern Europe. The warning coincides with similar assessments by other top military commanders, including Lt. Gen. Alexander Sollfrank, who stated that Russia could launch an attack on NATO territory at any time. The intelligence has sparked fears that the Russian military, severely weakened by Ukraine’s resistance, may be on the brink of a major escalation in the ongoing conflict, with potential consequences for NATO and global security.
General Philip Breedlove, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, has supported the German assessment, emphasizing that Russia’s intentions for Eastern Europe are clear. Breedlove noted that many observers have forgotten Russia’s early signals before the full-scale invasion, citing the two documents that Russia presented before the invasion, which were never acknowledged by the West. The intelligence suggests that these signals were a warning of potential military action, and the failure to heed them resulted in the invasion of Ukraine. He also highlighted that Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine, aiming to reshape the security landscape of Eastern Europe to a Cold War-like status, where Russia controls buffer states and has a buffer zone between itself and NATO.
The German foreign minister’s warning comes as other NATO members and defense officials express similar concerns. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has stated that a war between Russia and NATO could begin as early as 2029, with some analysts suggesting it could happen as early as 2028. The growing concerns are compounded by the ongoing war in Ukraine, where Russia has faced significant setbacks. Gen. Breedlove warned that the Russian military is in a state of severe degradation and may struggle to rebuild its forces quickly enough to launch a major offensive against NATO. Additionally, he cautioned that Putin will have to face the consequences of massive wartime losses, with estimates of casualties ranging from 1.1 to 1.5 million people, potentially leading to significant domestic unrest in Russia.
As the threat assessments intensify, the United States continues its efforts to push forward with a proposed Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Despite the ongoing conflict and a recent major Russian strike on Kyiv, which killed at least seven people and damaged critical infrastructure, U.S. officials report that progress has been made on the peace plan. President Donald Trump has stated that he will not meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy until the agreement is either complete or in its final stages, indicating a complex and delicate negotiation process that faces significant challenges. The situation underscores the urgent need for global coordination to prevent further escalation and mitigate the risks of a potential large-scale conflict between NATO and Russia.