Yaser Abu Shabab, once a convicted smuggler jailed by Hamas for charges of theft and corruption, has become a central figure in the evolving power dynamics within Gaza. His armed group, known as the ‘Popular Forces,’ now operates in Rafah, a region that fell out of Hamas control after Israeli military operations in early 2024. The group has taken on a quasi-protective role, patrolling aid convoys and distributing supplies, which has drawn both support and suspicion from within the region and beyond.
The question of who might govern Gaza in the wake of a potential Hamas defeat has become a pressing issue, especially in the context of ongoing political talks and international interventions. During a recent meeting between President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the possibility of local clans and militia leaders stepping into the vacuum left by Hamas was a recurring topic. Abu Shabab is one such figure, and his emergence has raised questions about the viability of internal governance structures in the absence of a recognized authority.
Abu Shabab, a member of the influential Tarabin Bedouin clan, has positioned himself as a resistance leader, insisting that his group is more akin to a counter-terror force than a militia. In an interview with Israeli outlet Ynet, he claimed that the mission of the ‘Popular Forces’ is to protect Palestinian human rights from what he describes as Hamas-led terrorism. However, the group’s operations have also been alleged to be supported by Israeli military forces, including the use of captured Hamas weapons and coordination with Palestinian officers based in Ramallah.
Opinions on Abu Shabab’s leadership are sharply divided. Some analysts, such as Joseph Braude from the Center for Peace Communications, argue that his group represents a potential building block for a post-Hamas order in Gaza. Braude suggested that while Abu Shabab may lack ideological depth, his group’s existence could serve as a foundation for future governance structures. Others, like Dr. Michael Milshtein from Tel Aviv University, have been more skeptical, dismissing the group as a criminal enterprise rather than a legitimate political actor.
Inside Gaza, the response to Abu Shabab’s leadership is mixed. While some residents fear Hamas more than they trust the former smuggler, others, such as political analyst Mkhaimar Abusada, suggest that support for Abu Shabab is superficial. Abusada noted that Abu Shabab has been disowned by his own clan and that the Tarabin see him as a collaborator with Israel. Given these internal tensions, there is uncertainty about the long-term viability of Abu Shabab’s movement, should Israel’s military presence in the region diminish.
Despite these controversies, Abu Shabab has continued to assert his position, calling for continued resistance against Hamas and expressing support for the return of Israeli hostages. In his statements, he has denied any direct ties to Israel, insisting that his group is aligned with the Palestinian Authority. However, the broader implications of his leadership remain unclear, with experts highlighting the risks and uncertainties associated with entrusting such power to a former criminal and militia leader.
Beyond the immediate political and security implications, the situation also underscores the complexities of governance in conflict zones. As external powers and local actors navigate the shifting landscape of Gaza, the rise of figures like Abu Shabab highlights the challenges of establishing stable, legitimate authority in the absence of a functional government. The long-term impact of these developments on the region’s political and humanitarian situation remains to be seen.