The article delves into Russia’s historical pattern of circumventing or violating agreements, using Chechn’ya and Georgia as key examples. These regions have experienced significant challenges in maintaining their autonomy or independence following agreements with Russia. In Chechnya, the 1990s conflict saw repeated cycles of violence and failed negotiations, with Russia often prioritizing its own interests over maintaining peace. Similarly, Georgia’s 2008 war with Russia demonstrated Russia’s tendency to disregard international agreements and assert its influence over neighboring regions.
Analysts suggest that this pattern could indicate how Russia might approach a potential peace deal with Ukraine. Despite any surface-level agreements, Russia’s actions in Chechnya and Georgia suggest a preference for maintaining strategic control rather than honoring long-term commitments. This raises concerns about the reliability of any peace negotiations, as Russia may prioritize its national interests over genuine reconciliation. The implications for Ukraine’s sovereignty and stability are significant, highlighting the complex challenges of achieving lasting peace in the region.