Republican Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa has confirmed she will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms, according to multiple sources. The 55-year-old senator, first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, is planning an official announcement next week about her decision. Her departure from the Senate creates an open seat in Iowa.
Ernst, a retired Army Reserve and Iowa National Guard officer who served in the Iraq War, has been under pressure to run for re-election. However, the senator has been grappling with the decision to run for the Senate seat in 2026, which she is now choosing to forgo. Her decision to retire rather than seek a third six-year term in the Senate means that an open seat will be created in Iowa.
GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former TV news anchor who is in her third term representing Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, is expected to run for the position of Senate. Multiple sources have confirmed that Hinson is the likely candidate to succeed Ernst. Hinson, who is known for her conservative views, is seen as a strong contender by the party.
Ernst first garnered national attention 11 years ago with her ‘make ’em squeal’ ads, which helped her win the Senate election to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin. Her military background has often positioned her as a leading voice on defense issues.
Since Trump’s 2016 presidential victory, Ernst has tried to balance her support for the president with adherence to more traditional Republican policies. This has resulted in some controversies, such as her response to a voter at a town hall meeting in which she said, ‘we are all going to die,’ in reference to the potential impact of Medicaid cuts on vulnerable populations.
The GOP is currently aiming to protect and expand the current Senate majority, which they hold at 53-47. With Republicans holding both U.S. Senate seats in Iowa and all four congressional districts, the party is looking to secure the open Senate seat and maintain its dominance in the state. While Democrats are energized after flipping two GOP-held state Senate seats in special elections, the GOP is confident in its ability to retain control in the state.
Additionally, the GOP is focusing on several battleground states in its midterm campaign strategy. In Georgia, where Trump narrowly won in 2024, the party is targeting first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff as the most vulnerable Democrat incumbent. In Michigan and New Hampshire, the GOP is also focusing on potentially vulnerable Democratic senators. Minnesota, where Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is not running, has also been added to the list of potential targets.
The party’s overall strategy in the midterms seems to be focused on maintaining and expanding its current Senate majority, while also defending the open seat in Iowa. With the 2026 midterm elections just a few months away, the GOP is preparing for a competitive race in the state and across the country.