A study published in The Lancet has raised urgent concerns about the global cancer death toll, forecasting a potential 75% increase by 2050, which would result in nearly 18.6 million deaths. This projection is driven by factors such as population growth and an aging global population.
According to the report, the majority of new cancer cases and the vast majority of deaths will occur in low- and middle-income countries, where resources for cancer treatment and prevention are often limited. The research underscores the critical need for global initiatives to address preventable risks like tobacco use, poor dietary habits, and unsafe sexual practices, calling these factors significant contributors to the rising cancer death toll.
The study, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, highlights that tobacco use, particularly among men, remains the leading cause of cancer mortality, responsible for an estimated 21% of all cancer deaths in 2023. In most countries, tobacco use was the top risk factor, except in low-income nations where unsafe sex, leading to human papillomavirus (HPV) infections, ranked first. Other major risks for men included alcohol consumption, unhealthy diets, occupational exposures, and air pollution, while among women, obesity and high blood sugar were significant contributors.
Co-author Dr. Theo Vos emphasized that the prevalence of cancer deaths linked to modifiable risk factors presents ‘tremendous opportunities’ for prevention through targeted behavioral changes such as smoking cessation, improved dietary habits, and safer sexual practices. The findings call for immediate and coordinated global health efforts to mitigate these risks and address the growing burden of cancer worldwide.