As President Donald Trump declared an ‘armed conflict’ with drug cartels, experts have provided insights into the future of the ‘quasi-war’ taking place at the U.S. border. Trump announced that the U.S. military had carried out another kinetic strike on a suspected drug vessel off the coast of Venezuela, killing six alleged smugglers. This move is part of a series of strikes targeting suspected drug smugglers, marking a crucial step in the administration’s campaign to dismantle the cartels.
The White House has informed Congress that the U.S. now considers itself engaged in a ‘non-international armed conflict’ with drug smugglers, enabling a broader military response. The administration has deployed significant naval and air assets around Venezuela, a country accused of colluding with the cartels. Experts believe these strikes could signal the start of a more extensive military campaign targeting the cartels’ logistics and command structures.
Derek Maltz, former acting director of the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), described the Trump administration’s actions as ‘unprecedented’ for an ‘unprecedented threat.’ He emphasized the need for a ‘whole of government’ strategy, with agencies like the DEA, Department of War, and others working in unison to combat the crisis. Maltz highlighted that the cartels are responsible for more American deaths than any other terrorist organization, making this a ‘poisoning crisis’ that requires a ‘powerful force of good’ to counter.
Maltz also stressed the importance of border security, noting that shutting down the land border was a critical first step in preventing the flow of drugs into the U.S. This shift has forced cartels to use sea and air routes, prompting the Trump administration to intensify its efforts against these new smuggling channels.
Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, likened the conflict to a ‘quasi-war’ where the U.S. is not only fighting drug cartels but also indirectly opposing international adversaries like Venezuela, Hezbollah, and China that support these organizations. He argued that the military strikes are sending a chilling message to the cartels, potentially undermining their ability to operate and leading to internal conflicts within their ranks.
Sadler predicted that the focus of U.S. military operations may eventually shift to the Pacific and transatlantic routes to Africa and Europe. He also warned that if cartels increasingly use airplanes to transport drugs, the U.S. may see these aircraft being targeted in international airspace. As the campaign progresses, he suggested that the scale of military operations will likely decrease, with the U.S. relying more on international partners and maintaining special operations capabilities in the region.
Both experts stressed the importance of a multifaceted approach, including education, to address the demand side of the crisis. Maltz predicted that Trump’s nominee for the head of the Office of National Drug Control Policy would focus on educational initiatives to inform the public about the dangers of new drugs being pushed by cartels and foreign adversaries.